Arbitrage Betting Explained

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What is Arbitrage Betting?

Arbitrage betting is to place wagers on opposite sides of the same sporting event. They must be placed at odds that guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. On simultaneously available betting odds, this will generally only occur at different sportsbooks. You may find opportunities for arbitrage at the same sportsbook due to odds movement. Still, it is best to avoid arbitrage betting at one sportsbook. You’re looking out for differences in odds.

How Arbitrage Betting Works

You may have heard of the concept of arbitrage betting and wonder how arbitrage betting works exactly. Arbitrage sounds fairly complex but can be broken down into simpler terms. While there are a few different ways to locate arbitrage opportunities in betting, they all come down to one concept.

Arbitrage is when you can place two bets on the same sporting event and guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. This is done by locating odds on both sides of the event that enable this. You will generally need to place one bet on one top online sportsbook and the other on another.

One reason is that it is fairly uncommon that a sportsbook would enable an in-house arbitrage opportunity. This would guarantee a loss for the house.

On top of it, it would be easy to spot an arbitrage bettor who is taking advantage of these types of opportunities at one sportsbook. You would likely be limited or banned by the sportsbook very quickly.

Now you understand the basic concept of what arbitrage betting, or “arbing” entails. So, let’s take a look at how you would go about finding arbitrage opportunities. We’ll discuss the basics of what to look for in an arbitrage bet.

How to Find Arbitrage Betting Opportunities

Assuming you want to get into arbitrage betting, you must locate opportunities to arbitrage on sportsbooks. It will be helpful to access an arbitrage betting calculator. There are a few available throughout the industry that you can use for free.

This will enable you to ascertain whether there are opportunities for arbitrage. You can also quickly calculate exactly how much to bet on both sides to maximize your profit.

The method for finding arbitrage opportunities entails looking for significantly differing odds on the same sporting event. If the odds differ greatly enough, there is a reasonable chance for arbitrage. A betting calculator will tell you how much opportunity is available.

It helps to look at some real-world examples. Let’s get into some of these to help you quickly spot arbitrage bets at sportsbooks.

Simultaneously Differing Moneylines

When looking for arbitrage opportunities, Major League Baseball tends to be one of the best sports. For this reason, we will use it, and moneyline betting in particular, as our example.

Perhaps the Angels are playing the Royals, and the Angels are +110 on the moneyline at one sportsbook. The Royals are +110 at another. Say you bet $100 on the Angels at one sportsbook and $100 on the Royals at the other.

Your $200 in total will result in collecting $210 and making $10 in profit. You will not likely find an opportunity like this, but this helps illustrate the concept of how to bet on MLB and arb easily.

It is more likely that you might see the Angels at -105 while the Royals are at +110. If you bet $107.56 on the Angels and $100 on the Royals, you would guarantee $2.44 in profit. Your $207.56 will collect $210 on one side or the other regardless of the outcome.

This may seem like a trivial amount of money. Still, the goal is to bet significantly more than $100 when you find such a scenario. This, paired with frequently locating and taking advantage of arbitrage on MLB, can lead to significant profit.

Simultaneously Differing Props

This example is essentially the same as our moneyline scenario. Yet, you may find it on the over/under in a prop betting context.

Once again, baseball is a good place to look for these opportunities, so we will use the MLB as an example. Starting pitcher strikeout props, in particular, are an excellent way to find them. So, let’s consider an O/U 6.5 line on Justin Verlander’s strikeouts on a given start.

Say one sportsbook has the over at +125 and another has the under at +130. To maximize profit on a $200 total bet, you would wager $98.90 on the under and $101.10 on the over.

This would guarantee you a payout of $227.47, regardless of which bet hits, for $27.47 in profit. It is unlikely that you would see an opportunity quite this lucrative. Still, this clearly illustrates the concept of arbitrage in this type of instance.

Odds Movement After Initial Bet Placement

It can be difficult to find simultaneously posted odds that enable arbitrage due to the general similarity between sportsbooks. Looking for odds movement after placing an initial wager can be the most effective way to find arbitrage in betting.

One method to consistently find these opportunities is to notice line movement trends. Either among specific sportsbooks or teams/players and how the betting public reacts.

This may enable you to predict when the odds are likely to move. You can then preemptively place bets expecting movement in your favor to allow arbitrage.

The problem is that you cannot guarantee this line movement in any scenario. You may be stuck with your single bet that you only placed in the hopes of a later arbitrage opportunity. It is important only to wager what you are comfortable with if you must let your original bet ride unaccompanied.

This particular strategy is crucial to only implement at different sportsbooks. You may have the opportunity to do so at a single sportsbook, but it is best to avoid the temptation.

Betting opposite sides of the same game at one sportsbook is a huge red flag for the house. They may ban or limit your account on the suspicion that you are indeed arbing.

Example of Odds Movement Arbitrage

For a scenario involving this form of arbitrage betting, consider an example where the starting moneyline on the Tigers is +110. Say you bet $100 on them to win against the Guardians.

Perhaps significant money is placed on the Tigers by the public and the line moves. They are now favored by -110, while the Guardians are +105 underdogs.

You would now have the opportunity to bet the Padres for $100. You would guarantee either a $5 or $10 profit in any eventuality.

This is the most practical and likely scenario in which you will find arbitrage possibilities. It requires diligence and the willingness to stick with your original bet if the opportunity does not arise. Still, it is more likely that you will come across these scenarios than arbitrage on simultaneously posted lines.

Risks of Arbitrage Betting

In its most effective and pure form, arbitrage betting is as close to a “sure bet” as you will find in sports wagering. Still, all gambling involves some risk. Let’s take a look at some of the foibles of arbitrage betting.

Making Calculation Mistakes

Of course, calculating arbitrage is not rocket science from a mathematical perspective. Plus, arbitrage betting calculators are available to help.

Still, it is conceivable that sports bettors can make mistakes in calculating an arbitrage opportunity. This can lead you to make bets that can only result in a loss.

It is important to exercise caution and be careful in your assessments. Especially as they are often made quickly in an effort to take advantage of the opportunities while they last.

Cancellation of Bets

One way that arbitrage can totally fail is with a bet cancellation. This does not occur all that often, but can.

A great example would be when a starting pitcher is scratched in favor of another. The sportsbook may then void your bet.

Perhaps you have placed two wagers as an attempt at arbitrage. One bet is canceled, and the other isn’t. This now means that you are on the hook for your single bet.

The Odds Move Too Quickly

You will rarely see an arbitrage opportunity that lasts very long due to the effectiveness of sportsbooks in setting odds. You will need to jump on these odds quickly before they have an opportunity to move.

It is possible that the line on your second bet may rapidly move away from your favor. This can occur before you get to it after placing your first wager.

In this instance, your strategy has been canceled as the odds no longer allow for arbitrage. For this reason, it is important to move quickly when arbing.

Being Banned or Limited

Being banned or limited by an online sportsbook is the biggest hurdle you must cross in an attempt to be a significantly profitable bettor. This is why pro bettors employ syndicates of people placing smaller bets to mask their advantage play at sportsbooks.

Say you are placing large enough wagers to make a significant profit at the low margins arbitrage betting allows. It will be clear to sportsbooks that you may be up to something.

Although arbitrage betting enables close to guaranteed profit, it may be risky. Arbing can lead to you being unable to bet as you would like to at your sportsbooks of choice.

Conclusion – Is Arbitrage Betting Worth It?

Say you have placed a pair of effective arbitrage bets. Barring the cancellation of one of them, you will be guaranteed a profit. For this reason, with respect to making money betting in the short term, there’s no reason not to engage in arbitrage betting.

Still, it can take a lot of time and effort for a minimal ROI. Also, to make it worthwhile, you may need to work with a considerable bankroll. In addition, arbitrage betting is one of the easiest ways to get banned or limited by sportsbooks.

The question of whether to arbitrage bet depends on the time and money investment you want to make. This, and your goals in popular sports betting markets. Nonetheless, there is no question that arbitrage betting is the best way to all but guarantee a profit on your wagers.