What is prediction market arbitrage?

Typical ROI: 1–8% per trade after Kalshi fees
Markets monitored: 990+ matched pairs across politics, macro, and crypto
No winner limits: peer-to-peer exchanges vs soft sportsbooks
2026 data: ArbBets’ Prediction Market Arbitrage Report 2026 measured a ~9.6% average arb rate across six Kalshi–Polymarket scans

Prediction market arbitrage involves finding price differences for the same events between platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion. When these markets disagree on probabilities, you can trade both sides to capture the spread.

How does Polymarket Kalshi arbitrage work?

When Polymarket and Kalshi have different prices for the same event, you buy YES on the cheaper platform and NO on the other. If the combined cost is less than $1, the difference is your profit regardless of outcome.

How much can I make from prediction markets arbitrage?

ArbBets finds 100+ arbitrage opportunities daily. Most opportunities yield 1-8% profit per trade. Returns depend on your capital and how quickly you execute.

Do you offer a prediction markets API?

Yes, our Premium plan includes full API access with real-time arbitrage data, Polymarket and Kalshi prices, and clean normalized data for building automated trading systems.

Cross Market Arbitrage Strategies

Buy YES and NO on different venues for less than $1 combined, or go long and short across perp DEXs to collect funding. You're paid for a mispricing, not for calling an outcome.