How to Find Value from Online Betting
Value Betting – How to Find Value from Online Betting
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What is Value Betting?
Value betting is one of the strongest betting strategies you can apply. It’s based on finding odds that are too high for the likely outcome and, in turn, offer value. This method is commonly used in finance and involves essentially buying at a lower price for a future increase in value.
In sports betting, value betting focuses on finding odds that are greater than the true probability of an event. To fully understand this concept, it’s crucial to know how to interpret odds. Check out our detailed guide on odds for more information.
As a quick example, let's look at a simple coin toss. We know that the outcome of heads or tails is 50/50, or in betting terms, this would be even money (+100) with an implied probability of 50% for both results. However, if a bookmaker offers odds of +110 for heads, translating to an implied probability of 47.6%, this creates a value opportunity since the true probability is 50%.
It’s not always this straightforward in sports betting, as many factors affect odds. Therefore, finding value requires skill, data analysis, and knowledge of market trends. We cover these in more depth throughout this article.
Understanding Probabilities in Relation to Value Betting
Understanding probabilities is key to successfully finding value. In betting, odds represent the implied probability of a result occurring. To learn more about how implied probability works, refer to our implied probability guide.
Let's take a closer look at a sports betting example:
| Team | Moneyline Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | +140 | 41.7% |
| New York Knicks | -165 | 62.3% |
The bookmaker here suggests that the Heat have a 41.7% chance of winning, while the Knicks have a 62.3% chance. These percentages don’t add up to 100% due to the bookmaker’s vig. For more on how vigorish (vig) works, read our vig explained guide.
To find value in this game, we need to challenge these probabilities. If our research shows that Miami actually has a 45% chance of winning, then the bet on the Heat offers value:
| Team | Moneyline Odds | Implied Probability | Our Odds | Our Implied Probability | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | +140 | 41.7% | +122 | 45% | Yes |
| New York Knicks | -165 | 62.3% | -150 | 60% | No |
According to our adjusted probabilities, betting on the Miami Heat at +140 provides value, while betting on the Knicks at -165 does not.
Value Betting Example
Let’s go through a couple of real-world value betting examples. These strategies will help you identify potential value in upcoming games.
Example 1: MLB – Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Over/Under 8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | +1.5 (-160) | +125 | O 8.5 (-115) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -1.5 (+135) | -150 | U 8.5 (-105) |
Key stats indicate that the under on the totals bet might offer value. Historical data shows that:
- Total has gone UNDER in 12 of Colorado’s last 18 games.
- Total has gone UNDER in 10 of Colorado’s last 13 road games.
- Total has gone UNDER in 11 of the last 16 matchups between these teams.
The bookmaker prices the under at -105, with an implied probability of 51.2%. However, data suggests the probability is closer to 60%. This difference indicates value in betting the under. For more insight into baseball betting, check our guide on finding value in baseball.
Example 2: NBA – Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
We're switching to the over/under market for this NBA game. Suppose you believe the over 209.5 points is where the value lies:
- Miami covered the over in 7 of their 9 playoff games.
- Both teams have been under their three-point shooting average (25%), usually around 35%.
The bookmaker has priced the over at -110, which equals a 52.4% implied probability. However, based on data, it should be closer to 60%. This presents a value bet opportunity on the over 209.5 points. Visit our guide on NBA betting for further strategies.
Value Betting Strategy
To succeed in value betting, you need a solid strategy. Here are some methods you can use to identify value:
1. Follow Tipsters
Many betting tipsters provide daily picks, but some are more reliable than others. Make sure the tipster you follow provides data-backed predictions. If you want to learn more about identifying good tipsters, see our guide on sports betting tipsters.
2. Become Your Own Bookmaker
Develop your own betting lines and compare them to those offered by bookmakers. If the bookmaker's odds are higher than your calculated odds, there's a potential value bet. Use our odds calculator to assist in creating your own book.
3. Specialize in One Sport or League
Focusing on a single sport allows you to build in-depth knowledge and recognize patterns more easily. If you’re an NBA fan, explore our NBA betting strategies to enhance your approach.
4. Be Selective
Do not force bets. If something feels off or doesn’t quite offer the value you want, move on. Patience is key. Check out our guide on betting discipline for tips on maintaining a selective approach.
5. Use Implied Probability
Implied probability is your best friend in value betting. Always calculate the implied probability of your perceived outcome and compare it to the bookmaker's odds. Use our implied probability calculator to quickly determine value.
Finding Value
Finding value is challenging, as bookmakers run tight lines using sophisticated algorithms. However, opportunities arise by tracking line movements. Learn more about this process in our guide on line movement and betting.
A classic scenario is when popular teams, such as the LA Lakers or New England Patriots, attract a lot of money from casual bettors. This influx often results in line adjustments that don't reflect the true probabilities, creating value for the opposing side.
For example, if the Patriots open at -150 (60% implied probability) but shorten to -300 (75% implied probability) due to high volume bets, the value might now lie in betting on the opposing team. Explore more such scenarios in our guide on finding value bets.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Value Betting
Advantages:
- Subjective Analysis: Allows you to use data to assess the likelihood of each event, which helps in identifying value.
- Market Trend Resistance: Value betting often involves betting against public trends, giving you an edge.
- Reduced Guesswork: You rely on statistical analysis rather than luck, enhancing long-term profitability. Learn more about data-driven betting.
- Increased Profitability: Targeting value leads to exponential growth in profits over time. For more on building a profitable strategy, check our sports betting financial strategies guide.
Disadvantages:
- Hard to Find: Bookmakers are skilled at setting competitive lines, making value bets hard to find.
- Account Limits: Consistent winners may find their accounts limited by bookmakers. Learn how to manage this in our guide on avoiding account limits.
- Probability Calculation: Determining accurate probabilities is complex due to the vast amount of data. Use our tools for calculating probabilities to assist in your analysis.
Conclusion
Value betting is a nuanced strategy that requires patience, research, and the ability to analyze odds and probabilities. While it’s challenging to master, it offers significant long-term rewards. Utilize our various betting guides and tools to enhance your value betting journey.