Question 1

Can you arbitrage bet on Kalshi and Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

Yes. When the same event is priced differently on Kalshi and Polymarket, you can buy YES on one platform and NO on the other for a combined cost below $1.00. ArbBets scans both exchanges continuously and surfaces live spreads with fee-adjusted ROI so you can act before the window closes.

Question 2

Is arbitrage allowed on Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

Polymarket does not prohibit arbitrage — traders routinely exploit price gaps between platforms. The practical constraint is access: Polymarket blocks U.S. residents from trading, so Americans typically arbitrage via Kalshi against Polymarket prices using offshore accounts or focus on Kalshi-only strategies.

Question 3

Is arbitrage possible on Kalshi?

Accepted Answer

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where contracts clear at $1.00, making binary arbitrage straightforward when paired with Polymarket or Opinion. Kalshi charges variable fees on certain markets, so profitable arbs must clear fees and slippage — our scanner factors both into every opportunity.

Question 4

Why is Polymarket illegal but not Kalshi?

Accepted Answer

Kalshi is registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market, giving it a federal legal framework for U.S. traders. Polymarket settled with the CFTC in 2022 and agreed to block U.S. users rather than obtain a U.S. license, which is why Americans can trade on Kalshi but not on Polymarket directly.

Question 5

Why can't Americans use Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

After a CFTC settlement, Polymarket geo-blocks U.S. IP addresses and requires non-U.S. residency verification. Americans who want regulated prediction-market exposure typically use Kalshi instead, while still monitoring Polymarket prices for cross-market arbitrage signals.

Question 6

How is Kalshi legal and not Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

Kalshi pursued and received CFTC approval to list event contracts as federally regulated derivatives. Polymarket operated without that approval and reached a settlement requiring it to restrict U.S. access. Both platforms trade similar event contracts, but only Kalshi has a current U.S. regulatory path.

Question 7

What is the Kalshi controversy?

Accepted Answer

Kalshi has faced pushback over listing contracts on elections, sports, and other sensitive events, with critics arguing some markets resemble gambling. The CFTC and courts have weighed in on scope, but Kalshi remains operational for U.S. users while continuing to expand its contract categories.

Question 8

Who is Polymarket's biggest competitor?

Accepted Answer

Kalshi is Polymarket's primary U.S. competitor — both list event contracts on politics, economics, and culture, often on overlapping questions. For cross-market traders, the Kalshi–Polymarket pair is the highest-volume arbitrage corridor; Opinion and other platforms add secondary legs.

Question 9

Is it possible to arbitrage prediction markets?

Accepted Answer

Yes. Prediction markets are fragmented across Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, and others, so the same event frequently trades at different implied probabilities. When combined YES/NO ask prices sum to less than $1.00 after fees, you lock in risk-free profit regardless of outcome.

Question 10

Is market arbitrage legal?

Accepted Answer

Arbitrage — buying and selling the same economic exposure at different prices — is generally legal in regulated markets. On Kalshi, trading is permitted under CFTC rules; on Polymarket, legality depends on your jurisdiction. Always comply with local laws and platform terms of service.

Question 11

Are prediction markets illegal?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets are not universally illegal. Kalshi operates legally for U.S. users under CFTC oversight; Polymarket serves non-U.S. users offshore. Some states and countries restrict event-contract trading, so legality depends on where you live and which platform you use.

Question 12

Is arbitrage trading still profitable?

Accepted Answer

Cross-market prediction-market arbitrage remains profitable when spreads exceed fees and slippage — typically 1–8% ROI per trade. Windows are competitive and can close in minutes, which is why real-time scanners and API-driven bots outperform manual monitoring.

Feature	Kalshi	Polymarket
U.S. access	Yes (CFTC-regulated)	Blocked for U.S. residents
Trading fees	Variable (up to ~7% on some markets)	Low / maker rebates
Liquidity	Strong on U.S. macro & events	Highest global volume
Arbitrage pair	Primary cross-market corridor — see live spreads above

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