Arbitrage Betting: The Complete Guide to Guaranteed Profits (2026)

TL;DR

Arbitrage betting guarantees profit by exploiting price differences between bookmakers or prediction markets. When Platform A prices an event differently than Platform B, you bet both sides to lock in profit regardless of outcome. ArbBets finds 70-100 daily opportunities averaging 4.87% ROI across sports betting and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

What Is Arbitrage Betting?

Arbitrage betting (or "arbing") involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different platforms to guarantee a profit. This strategy works because different bookmakers and prediction markets price events differently, creating exploitable gaps.

Sports Betting Example

• Sportsbook A offers Team X at 2.10 odds to win
• Sportsbook B offers Team Y at 2.05 odds to win
• By betting proportionally on both outcomes, you secure profit regardless of winner

Prediction Market Example

• Polymarket prices "Fed cuts rates" at 72¢ Yes / 28¢ No
• Kalshi prices the same event at 68¢ Yes / 32¢ No
• Buy Yes on Kalshi (68¢) + No on Polymarket (28¢) = 96¢ cost for $1 guaranteed payout
• Profit: 4.17% ROI

How Does Arbitrage Betting Work?

The mathematics behind arbitrage is straightforward:

Step 1: Find Price Discrepancies

Different platforms attract different bettors with different information. This creates persistent pricing differences.

Step 2: Calculate the Arbitrage

Add the implied probabilities of each outcome across platforms. If total < 100%, arbitrage exists.

Formula: (1/Odds A) + (1/Odds B) < 1

Step 3: Calculate Optimal Stakes

Bet proportionally to guarantee equal profit regardless of outcome.

Step 4: Execute Quickly

Place all bets before odds change. Speed matters—opportunities can disappear in minutes.

Arbitrage Markets in 2026

Traditional Sports Markets

Prediction Markets (Higher Returns)

Prediction markets offer higher returns because:

• Different user bases (US vs international)
• Lower liquidity means slower price adjustments
• Fewer professional arbitrageurs competing

Learn more in our Prediction Markets Arbitrage Guide.

Why Choose Arbitrage Betting?

Guaranteed Profits

Unlike traditional betting, pure arbitrage eliminates outcome risk. Your profit is locked the moment both trades execute.

No Sports Knowledge Required

You're exploiting pricing inefficiency, not predicting winners. The math works regardless of your sports expertise.

Scalable Strategy

Returns scale with capital. A 5% arb on $100 is $5; on $10,000 it's $500.

Works Across Markets

The same strategy applies to:

• Sports betting (moneylines, spreads, totals)
• Prediction markets (politics, crypto, economics)
• Player props and specialty markets

Comparison: Sports vs Prediction Market Arbitrage

For higher returns with less competition, prediction markets currently offer better opportunities. See our Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison.

Essential Tools for Success

1. Arbitrage Finder Software

Manual scanning is impractical. Use tools like ArbBets to:

• Scan thousands of markets in real-time
• Get instant alerts when opportunities appear
• Calculate optimal stake amounts automatically

2. Multiple Platform Accounts

You need funded accounts on:

• Sportsbooks: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, etc.
• Prediction Markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion

3. Bankroll Management

• Keep funds distributed across platforms
• Track all bets and returns
• Never overextend on single opportunities

Getting Started Guide

Phase 1: Setup (Day 1-3)

1. Create accounts on 3-5 sportsbooks
2. Set up Polymarket (requires crypto wallet)
3. Register on Kalshi (US residents)
4. Fund each account with starting capital

Phase 2: Learning (Week 1)

1. Start with small stakes ($25-50 per arb)
2. Focus on simple two-outcome markets
3. Track every bet meticulously
4. Understand each platform's interface

Phase 3: Scaling (Week 2+)

1. Increase position sizes gradually
2. Expand to more markets and platforms
3. Use arbitrage finder tools for efficiency
4. Optimize execution speed

Risk Management

Execution Risk

Prices can move between placing your first and second bet. Mitigate by:

• Having both platforms open simultaneously
• Placing the less liquid side first
• Using limit orders when possible

Platform Risk

Reduce exposure to any single platform. Spread funds across multiple books and prediction markets.

Capital Lockup

Prediction market arbs may lock capital for weeks or months until events resolve. Factor settlement timing into your strategy.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

1. Slow execution — Opportunities disappear in minutes
2. Ignoring fees — Always calculate net profit after all costs
3. Wrong market matching — Verify you're trading the exact same event
4. Overleveraging — Don't put all capital in one opportunity
5. Poor record keeping — Track everything for tax purposes

Frequently Asked Questions

Is arbitrage betting legal?

Yes. Arbitrage is a standard trading strategy used in all financial markets. Both sports betting (where legal) and prediction markets allow it.

How much money do I need?

Start with $500-1,000 split across platforms. Larger bankrolls capture more opportunities profitably.

Will I get banned?

Sportsbooks sometimes limit winning accounts. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi generally don't restrict arbitrageurs—you're providing liquidity.

How much can I make?

Depends on capital and effort. With $5,000 and active trading, expect $200-500/month. Returns scale with bankroll.

Start Finding Arbitrage Opportunities

Manual arbitrage hunting is time-consuming and you'll miss most opportunities. ArbBets scans sportsbooks and prediction markets in real-time, alerting you to profitable opportunities as they appear.