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Valuebets

Valuebets

How to Find and Profit from Value Betting - What is a Valuebet?

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Valuebets / SureBet

In this article, we will take a look at an interesting strategy known as value betting. It is more complicated than surebetting and carries more risk, but it also offers certain advantages.

Contents

What is a Bookmaker’s Margin?

To understand how value betting works, it’s essential to dive into the concept of a bookmaker's margin. Bookmakers make their profits by adding a margin to the odds they offer, ensuring the odds are lower than the true probability of an event occurring.

For example, imagine a simple coin flip with a 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails. In a fair world, odds for both heads and tails would be 2.00. However, bookmakers never offer such fair odds. Instead, they might set odds at 1.90 for both heads and tails, taking a small commission, known as the margin. This margin is what gives bookmakers their advantage and helps them make money over the long term.

In real betting markets, odds for all possible outcomes of an event are adjusted so that:

1/K1 + 1/K2 + … + 1/Kn > 1

Here, K1, K2, … Kn represent the odds for each of the possible outcomes of an event. The difference between this sum and 1 represents the bookmaker’s margin.

For example, let’s examine an Inter Milan vs. Porto match:

Bwin's 1X2 line for Inter Milan - Porto match

Calculation: 1/1.88 + 1/3.75 + 1/3.90 = 1.054 (which is > 1)

This means the bookmaker has a margin of (1.054 - 1) * 100% = 5.4%. The bookmaker adjusts the odds to ensure that they maintain an advantage over the players. This principle is the foundation for most bookmakers' profitability.

What is a Valuebet?

A valuebet is a bet where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true probability of the event occurring. Essentially, you are betting against the bookmaker's error in setting the odds.

For example, let’s return to our coin flip scenario. If a bookmaker incorrectly sets the odds for heads at 2.10 (implying a 47.6% probability), while the true probability is 50%, you have found a valuebet. Over the long run, betting on these value odds should yield a profit. This can be expressed mathematically as:

K * P > 1

Where K is the odds provided by the bookmaker and P is the true probability of the event. If this inequality holds, the bet is considered a valuebet.

Methods of Finding Valuebets

To find valuebets, you need to estimate the true probability of an event's outcome. Once you have this, the next step is to find odds that make the inequality K * P > 1 true. There are two primary methods to achieve this:

1. Analytical Method

This involves deep research into the event, analyzing team performance, player statistics, weather conditions, and other relevant factors. Professional analysts use this approach to predict outcomes with high accuracy. While this method is detailed and can be highly effective, it requires extensive knowledge and is difficult to automate.

2. Statistical Method

This method relies on the collective knowledge of multiple bookmakers. By comparing odds from a large number of bookmakers, you can calculate their margins and deduce a more accurate probability of each outcome. This method is easier to automate and can provide a reliable estimation of valuebets based on the aggregated opinions of various betting analysts.

Our service uses the statistical approach to find valuebets, giving you access to opportunities quickly.

Using Surebets to Find Valuebets

An interesting property of a surebet is that at least one of the bets within it is likely to be a valuebet. A surebet is constructed when the total implied probability of the odds for an event is less than 1:

For example: 1/2 + 1/3.75 + 1/5 = 0.9667 (which is < 1)

This negative margin indicates that one or more of the bets involved is overvalued, making it a valuebet. By examining which bet in a series of surebets consistently appears overvalued, you can identify potential valuebets.

Pros and Cons of Valuebets

Advantages

  • Fewer Bets: Unlike surebetting, where you need to place bets on multiple outcomes, valuebetting involves only one bet, minimizing the risk of incomplete bets.
  • Less Account Usage: Surebetting often requires multiple bookmaker accounts. With valuebetting, you can work effectively with just one.
  • Natural Betting Behavior: Betting with valuebets allows more flexibility in stake sizes, appearing less suspicious to bookmakers.
  • Higher Profit Potential: When efficiently identifying overvalued bets, valuebetting can yield more profit in the long term as you avoid paying the bookmaker’s margin.

Disadvantages

  • Risk of Loss: Unlike surebets, where profit is guaranteed, valuebets carry the risk of losing individual bets. Valuebetting is meant for long-term strategies, relying on placing many small bets to reduce the variance.

By understanding and applying these strategies, you can enhance your betting approach, minimize risk, and increase profitability. Explore our comprehensive guide to valuebetting to learn more about how to implement these techniques effectively.