Live Arbitrage Betting: Real-Time Opportunities in Sports & Prediction Markets (2026)

TL;DR

Live arbitrage betting exploits real-time price movements during events to guarantee profit. While sports live betting offers 5-10% margins, prices move in seconds. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi offer similar returns with more time to execute—news events create price gaps that persist for minutes, not seconds. ArbBets monitors both markets for the best risk-adjusted opportunities.

What Is Live Arbitrage Betting?

Live arbitrage (or in-play arbitrage) involves exploiting price discrepancies that emerge during live events. Unlike pre-match arbitrage where you bet before an event starts, live arbitrage capitalizes on real-time price movements.

Why Live Prices Create Opportunities

During live events, prices shift based on:

• Score changes — A team falling behind sees their odds spike
• News breaks — Injury, weather, or other developments
• Market sentiment — Crowd behavior moves prices unevenly
• Platform latency — Different platforms update at different speeds

When Platform A adjusts prices faster than Platform B, a window opens for arbitrage.

Live Arbitrage: Sports vs Prediction Markets

Sports Live Arbitrage

Traditional in-play arbitrage on sports events. A basketball team down 15 points might see odds of +500 on one book while another still shows +400. The window lasts seconds.

Pros: Higher margins Cons: Extremely stressful, requires constant attention, accounts get limited

Prediction Market "Live" Events

When news breaks about a prediction market event—election polls, company announcements, geopolitical developments—platforms update at different speeds.

Example: Fed announces rate decision at 2:00 PM

• Kalshi updates in 30 seconds
• Polymarket takes 2 minutes
• Window for arbitrage: ~90 seconds (much longer than sports)

Pros: More time to execute, higher base ROI, no account limits Cons: Events less frequent than sports

How Live Prediction Market Arbitrage Works

Scenario: Breaking News

Event: Fed announces 0.25% rate cut (market expected 0.50%)

Before announcement:

• Polymarket: "Fed cuts 0.50%+" Yes 65¢ / No 35¢
• Kalshi: Same pricing

After announcement (Kalshi updates first):

• Kalshi: Yes 15¢ / No 85¢ (updated)
• Polymarket: Yes 65¢ / No 35¢ (still stale)

Arbitrage opportunity:

• Buy No on Polymarket: 35¢
• Buy Yes on Kalshi: 15¢ (the losing side, but cheap)
• Wait... actually, buy No on Kalshi at 85¢ would be the losing trade

Better approach: Buy the winning outcome on the stale platform before it updates.

Real Strategy: Cross-Platform Speed Advantage

More commonly, arbitrage emerges from persistent pricing differences rather than latency:

This opportunity persists because:

• Kalshi has more US local bettors (bullish on Bass)
• Polymarket has international traders (different view)
• Neither platform has enough cross-platform arbitrageurs to close the gap

Live Arbitrage Step-by-Step

Step 1: Preparation

• Fund accounts on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion
• Keep trading pages open and logged in
• Set up ArbBets alerts for your target markets

Step 2: Monitor Key Events

Focus on events likely to move prices:

• Economic announcements (Fed, jobs data, GDP)
• Election results and polls
• Company earnings and IPO news
• Geopolitical developments

Step 3: Act on Alerts

When an opportunity appears:

1. Verify prices on both platforms (5 seconds)
2. Calculate if arbitrage still exists (5 seconds)
3. Place trade on less liquid platform first (10 seconds)
4. Place second trade immediately (10 seconds)
5. Confirm both filled (5 seconds)

Total execution time: ~35 seconds — achievable for prediction markets, challenging for sports.

Step 4: Lock In Profit

Once both trades execute at the right prices, your profit is guaranteed. Now you wait for event resolution.

Live vs Pre-Event Arbitrage

Recommendation: Start with pre-event arbitrage on prediction markets. The 4-8% returns with low time pressure make it ideal for learning. Graduate to live arbitrage once comfortable with execution.

Best Markets for Live Arbitrage

High-Frequency News Events

• Fed announcements — 8 per year, massive price movements
• Jobs reports — Monthly, affects economic markets
• Earnings releases — Daily opportunities across companies
• Election results — Prices swing as results come in

Prediction Market Advantages

Unlike sports where games happen continuously, prediction market "live" events are scheduled. You know exactly when to pay attention:

• Fed meeting: 2:00 PM ET on specific dates
• Earnings: After market close or before open
• Elections: Results come in over hours, not seconds

This predictability reduces stress compared to sports live betting.

Tools for Live Arbitrage

Essential: Real-Time Scanner

You cannot manually monitor live prices across platforms. Use tools like ArbBets that:

• Update prices in real-time
• Alert you to new opportunities instantly
• Calculate arbitrage percentages automatically

Helpful: Multi-Monitor Setup

• Screen 1: Arbitrage finder dashboard
• Screen 2: Platform A trading page
• Screen 3: Platform B trading page

Optional: Automated Execution

Advanced traders build bots to execute automatically. This requires:

• API access to platforms
• Programming skills
• Careful risk management

Most traders do fine with manual execution on prediction markets where windows last minutes.

Risk Management for Live Trading

Execution Risk

The primary risk: prices move before you complete both trades.

Mitigation:

• Place less liquid trade first
• Use limit orders when possible
• Accept that some opportunities will slip away
• Never chase—if prices moved, find the next opportunity

Partial Fill Risk

One order fills, the other doesn't.

Mitigation:

• Check liquidity before trading
• Size positions appropriately for available depth
• Have a plan for unwinding partial positions

Platform Risk

One platform goes down during execution.

Mitigation:

• Keep funds distributed across platforms
• Don't overconcentrate in any single opportunity
• Have backup execution methods ready

Common Mistakes

1. Chasing Disappeared Opportunities

If prices moved, the opportunity is gone. Don't force trades at worse prices hoping it still works.

2. Oversizing Positions

Large orders move markets. If an arb shows on $5,000 liquidity, don't try to place $10,000.

3. Ignoring Settlement Time

A 10% arb on an event 6 months away might not beat a 5% arb settling next week, depending on your cost of capital.

4. Trading Every Alert

Quality over quantity. A 2% opportunity with execution risk isn't worth the stress. Wait for 4%+ opportunities.

Getting Started with Live Arbitrage

Week 1: Paper Trade

• Set up alerts and monitor without trading
• Practice identifying opportunities
• Time your theoretical execution

Week 2: Small Stakes

• Trade with $50-100 per opportunity
• Focus on clean execution over profit maximization
• Track every trade and outcome

Week 3+: Scale Up

• Increase position sizes gradually
• Expand to more platforms and markets
• Optimize your process

Conclusion

Live arbitrage betting offers higher returns than pre-event arbitrage but demands faster execution and more attention. For most traders, prediction market arbitrage provides the best balance—4-8% returns with execution windows of minutes rather than seconds.